Time: 1007 AM Sat May 18, 2019 Forecaster: Alan Smith

Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program

COOLER WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
-A trough of low pressure remains over Eastern Colorado today with a cooler airmass in place at the surface. Temperatures will be below average with highs in the low 60s on the plains under partly to mostly cloudy skies.
-Drier air at the low levels has moved into the District from the northwest with dewpoints in the low/mid 30s expected this afternoon. An upper level disturbance will arrive around midday, with enough instability to trigger 1-2 rounds of scattered showers and weak thunderstorms across the District. However, rainfall amounts are expected to be light. Storm motions will be to the SE at about 15-20mph.
-The best chance of storms will be during the early to mid afternoon hours, before quickly drying out this evening as high pressure builds into the District from the west. Dry conditions will prevail overnight with lows in the upper 30s on the plains.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and weak thunderstorms will produce rainfall amounts of TR-0.1" in 10-30 minutes, with stronger thunderstorms capable of producing up to 0.3" in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of thunderstorm cells results in rainfall of up to 0.5" in 45-60 minutes.

A LOOK AHEAD: Sunday will start out dry through about mid-afternoon, before the next trough of low pressure approaches late Sunday. Shower/thunderstorm chances will increase across northern portions of the District Sunday evening and overnight, before more widespread rains arrive Monday and Monday night along with embedded thunderstorms. Cooler temperatures may very well limit the heavy rainfall threat during this period, but some uncertainty still exists in the forecast.

Location Prime Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams 1200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE
Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE
Boulder 1200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE
Broomfield 1200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE
Denver 1200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE
Douglas 1200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE
Jefferson 1200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE
Foothills above 6500ft      
Boulder 1100 AM TO 700 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE
Douglas 1100 AM TO 700 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE
Jefferson 1100 AM TO 700 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.