| A ridge of high pressure is parked over the Four-Corners region today, transporting monsoonal moisture into Colorado. Sunny morning skies will permit afternoon temperatures to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s with surface dewpoints around 50°F, sufficiently destabilizing the atmosphere. Precipitable water (PWAT) values will reach 0.85” by the early afternoon. However, upper-level support is less impressive, and will therefore limit overall thunderstorm development and duration across the District broadly. If storms manage to develop over the District, they will have the potential to produce moderate to brief heavy rainfall this afternoon and evening. Convection initiation will begin around noon across complex terrain, moving southeast towards the plains between 15-25 mph. Thunderstorm activity is expected to dissipate by the late evening, with skies gradually clearing overnight. |
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm, or training of storms, may be capable of producing up to 1.50” or more in 30 minutes or less.
A LOOK AHEAD: A subtle cold front is expected to meander across the northern Plains early Saturday morning, supporting cooler temperatures and a more active pattern this weekend and early next week. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s Saturday and Sunday with chances for scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms. This slower moving disturbance, coupled with elevated atmospheric moisture will support thunderstorm clusters producing efficient rainfall across the District throughout the weekend.
| Location | Prime Time | 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability |
Message Potential |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plains | |||
| Adams |
100 PM TO
900 PM |
0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1" (10%) | |
| Arapahoe |
100 PM TO
900 PM |
0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1" (10%) | |
| Boulder |
100 PM TO
900 PM |
0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1" (10%) | |
| Broomfield |
100 PM TO
900 PM |
0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1" (10%) | |
| Denver |
100 PM TO
900 PM |
0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1" (10%) | |
| Douglas |
100 PM TO
900 PM |
0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1" (10%) | |
| Jefferson |
100 PM TO
900 PM |
0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1" (10%) | |
| Foothills above 6500ft | |||
| Boulder |
1200 PM TO
800 PM |
0.25" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1" (10%) | |
| Douglas |
1200 PM TO
800 PM |
0.25" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1" (10%) | |
| Jefferson |
1200 PM TO
800 PM |
0.25" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1" (10%) |
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.