Time: 950 AM Tue July 23, 2019 Forecaster: Nick Barlow

Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program

WARMER WITH EARLY-EVENING SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS
-Upper-level high pressure remains anchored over the Four Corners on Tuesday, with weak NNW flow aloft over Colorado. Slightly warmer and drier air will arrive this afternoon, which will help temperatures rebound back to around 90, with plenty of sunshine expected.
-Similar to previous days, showers and thunderstorms will fire over the mountains and foothills early this afternoon, a few of which will track onto the adjacent plains late this afternoon through early evening. Storms are expected to be less numerous and weaker than previous days, but stronger storm cells may produce moderate to locally-heavy rainfall.
-Today's showers and storms will track to the SSE at around 15-20mph, with the best chance for a storm over the District occurring between about 4:00pm-8:00pm
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate showers and thunderstorms will produce rainfall between 0.10-0.30" in 10-30 minutes. Stronger thunderstorms could produce rainfall between 0.30-0.60" in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm anchored to a convergence boundary results in rainfall up to 2.00" in 30-60 minutes.

A LOOK AHEAD: High pressure flattens and nudges E on Wednesday, while afternoon temperatures climb into the low to mid 90s. A weak disturbance will lead to a slight uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity, with moderate to locally-heavy rainfall again possible.

Location Prime Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams 400 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW
Arapahoe 400 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW
Boulder 400 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (45%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW
Broomfield 400 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW
Denver 400 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW
Douglas 400 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (45%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW
Jefferson 400 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (45%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW
Foothills above 6500ft      
Boulder 300 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW
Douglas 300 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW
Jefferson 300 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.