Time: 1032 AM Thu July 4, 2019 Forecaster: Alan Smith

Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program

VERY WARM WITH WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
-The District remains under a southwest flow aloft today, but at the surface an outflow boundary from overnight storm activity in Wyoming and Nebraska has backed its way into the District. This boundary is ushering in greater low level moisture, with low level stratus clouds now covering northern and eastern portions of the District.
-Stratus clouds will gradually clear out by early afternoon with afternoon highs rising into the upper 80s to near 90 on the plains. With greater low level moisture now in place, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon with activity favoring northern and eastern portions of the District.
-Storm motions will be to the NE at 15-20mph, which should limit point rainfall amounts. However, the potential exists for a few stronger storms to develop with the potential for heavy rainfall in a short period of time. The chance for thunderstorms will persist well into the evening before gradually tapering off by late evening.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce rainfall amounts of TR-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. A strong thunderstorm will be capable of producing rainfall of up to 1.0" in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of thunderstorm cells along an outflow boundary results in heavy rainfall of up to 2.4" in 60-90 minutes.

A LOOK AHEAD: A cold front will reach the District on Friday morning, ushering in cooler temperatures and greater moisture with highs in the low 80s on the plains. Storm activity may be capped off initially, but thunderstorms will become likely by late Friday afternoon and evening with heavy rainfall possible. Deep moisture will remain in place on Saturday as well with widespread afternoon thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall. Thunderstorm activity will become more isolated in coverage on Sunday and Monday but some potential will remain for heavy rainfall.

Location Prime Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams 400 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (45%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD
Arapahoe 400 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (10%) MOD
Boulder 400 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (45%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD
Broomfield 400 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (45%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD
Denver 400 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (35%) to 1.0" (10%) MOD
Douglas 400 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (10%) MOD
Jefferson 400 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (35%) to 1.0" (10%) MOD
Foothills above 6500ft      
Douglas 400 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (35%) to 1.0" (10%) MOD
Jefferson 400 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (35%) to 1.0" (10%) MOD
Boulder 300 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (85%) to 0.4" (45%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.