Flash Flood Prediction Program

Strong storms to the northeast have produced gust fronts across norther Colorado this evening. A strong storm has initiated in the Fort Collins Area and could potentially produce additional storms favoring northern portions of the District over the next few hours.

These storms have continued to be moderate to strong with isolated pockets of heavy rain. Storm movement has remained quick, between 15-25mph helping limit point rainfall amounts. However, a stronger storm formed along a gust front will still have the potential to produce a quick 0.5”-0.75” in 10-30 minutes. This has resulted in a LOW chance Messages will be issued over the next couple of hours, possibly extending until midnight.

STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated thunderstorms will produce a 0.05-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong/severe shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.25-0.75” total in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 1.75” total in under 60 minutes.

A LOOK AHEAD: Skies will gradually clear overnight with warmer temperatures tomorrow as highs are expected to be well into the 80s. A slight chance for showers/isoalted thunderstorms tomorrow, mainly for areas along and south of the Palmer Divide.

Location	Prime Time	30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability	Message Potential
Plains
Adams	Current TO 1159 PM MON	0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%)	MOD
Arapahoe	Current TO 1159 PM MON	0.05" (60%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%)	MOD
Boulder	Current TO 1159 PM MON	0.05" (60%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%)	MOD
Broomfield	Current TO 1159 PM MON	0.05" (60%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%)	MOD
Denver	Current TO 1159 PM MON	0.05" (60%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%)	MOD
Douglas	Current TO 1159 PM MON	0.05" (30%) to 0.25" (15%) to 0.75" (10%)	LOW
Jefferson	Current TO 1159 PM MON	0.05" (30%) to 0.25" (15%) to 0.75" (10%)	LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder	Current TO 1159 PM MON	0.05" (60%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%)	MOD
Douglas	Current TO 1159 PM MON	0.05" (30%) to 0.25" (15%) to 0.75" (10%)	LOW
Jefferson	Current TO 1159 PM MON	0.05" (30%) to 0.25" (15%) to 0.75" (10%)	LOW

MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.