Flash Flood Prediction Program

-	Message 1's will continue valid until 8:00 PM but the threat for heavy rainfall from thunderstorms is diminishing.
-	Strongest storms today remained to the E and SE of the District over Elbert and eastern Arapahoe Counties. These storms have produced a gust front which is pushing back to the NW but is failing to produce any additional storms.
-	Surface moisture has decreased from earlier this afternoon and with temperatures at or just past their peak the threat for thunderstorms will be lowering into the evening. Should a thunderstorm develop over the next 2-3 hours it will still be capable of producing heavy rainfall but much of the available energy has been tapped by storms outside the District.

STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.2" of rain. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving strong thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce up to 1.0" of rain in 45-60 minutes.

County	Message	Valid Times	Prime Time
Boulder County	1	200 PM TO 800 PM	230 PM TO 730 PM
Jefferson County	1	200 PM TO 800 PM	230 PM TO 730 PM
Broomfield County	1	200 PM TO 800 PM	230 PM TO 730 PM
Douglas County	1	200 PM TO 800 PM	230 PM TO 730 PM
Adams County	1	200 PM TO 800 PM	230 PM TO 730 PM
Denver County	1	200 PM TO 800 PM	230 PM TO 730 PM
DIA	1	200 PM TO 800 PM	230 PM TO 730 PM
Arapahoe County	1	200 PM TO 800 PM	230 PM TO 730 PM
the City of Aurora	1	200 PM TO 800 PM	230 PM TO 730 PM
Arvada	1	200 PM TO 800 PM	230 PM TO 730 PM
Wheat Ridge	1	200 PM TO 800 PM	230 PM TO 730 PM
Lakewood	1	200 PM TO 800 PM	230 PM TO 730 PM

County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook	Precipitation Time	30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability	Message Potential
Plains
Adams	Current TO 800 PM THU	Trace (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (10%)	ISSUED
Arapahoe	Current TO 800 PM THU	Trace (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (10%)	ISSUED
Boulder	Current TO 800 PM THU	Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.6" (10%)	ISSUED
Broomfield	Current TO 800 PM THU	Trace (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (10%)	ISSUED
Denver	Current TO 800 PM THU	Trace (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (10%)	ISSUED
Douglas	Current TO 800 PM THU	Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.6" (10%)	ISSUED
Jefferson	Current TO 800 PM THU	Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.6" (10%)	ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder	Current TO 800 PM THU	Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (10%)	ISSUED
Douglas	Current TO 800 PM THU	Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (10%)	ISSUED
Jefferson	Current TO 800 PM THU	Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (10%)	ISSUED

MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.