Time: 915 AM Sat July 23, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons

Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program

RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THIS AFTERNOON AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH
-The streak of 90-degree plus days will continue for one more day with highs warming well into the 90's over the plains ahead of shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon which will provide relief from the heat.
-Thunderstorms will begin to develop over the mountains and foothills ahead of noon and then spread out onto the plains between noon-1pm. 1-3 rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected between 1-9pm with lingering rain showers possible until about midnight. Moisture will be on the increase as the day progresses resulting in stronger storms capable of producing brief heavy rainfall. More typical storms will produce light to moderate rain and gusty winds.
-Upper level steering winds will be from W to E at 15-20mph keeping the majority of the storms moving along and helping to reduce point rainfall amounts from a single storm. Training of thunderstorm cells or a briefly anchored thunderstorm will be the main culprits for extended periods of heavy rainfall resulting in a LOW to MODERATE risk for excessive runoff.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.3" of moisture. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of thunderstorm cells or a briefly anchored strong thunderstorm may result in up to 1.5" of heavy rain in 45-60 minutes.

A LOOK AHEAD: Temperatures will back off into the 80's for highs on Sunday and moisture will increase further leading to an active thunderstorm day. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon, some of which may become strong to severe and will be very capable of producing heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding.

Location Prime Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams 100 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (15%) LOW
Arapahoe 100 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (15%) LOW
Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD
Broomfield 100 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (15%) LOW
Denver 100 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (15%) LOW
Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD
Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD
Foothills above 6500ft      
Boulder 1200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (25%) MOD
Douglas 1200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (25%) MOD
Jefferson 1200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (25%) MOD
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
https://f2p2.udfcd.org/generator/