Time: 927 AM Thu May 16, 2019 Forecaster: Brad Simmons

Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program

CONTINUED WARM WITH ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
-Ridge of high pressure shifts eastward today allowing for SW flow aloft to import high and mid level moisture into NE Colorado. The result will be another warm day with highs in the 80's over the plains and a continued chance for isolated high based showers and weak thunderstorms this afternoon.
-Best chances for high based showers and weak thunderstorms will be between 2-8pm, favoring northern and western areas of the District. Storms that manage to develop today will produce minimal rainfall and gusty winds up to 40mph. Storms will move from SW to NE at 20-25mph.
-By around sunset any shower activity will diminish with dry conditions for the overnight period.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Isolated rain showers and weak thunderstorms will generally produce a trace to 0.1" but some foothill storms may produce up to 0.2".

A LOOK AHEAD: Storm system moving into the Great Basin today will move into Colorado on Friday increasing the chances for afternoon thunderstorms. Best moisture will remain to the N and E of the District but some storms may produce wetting rain and possibly severe weather with gusty winds and hail being the primary threats. Temperatures will lower into the 70's for highs over the plains.

Location Prime Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE
Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE
Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE
Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE
Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE
Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE
Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE
Foothills above 6500ft      
Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE
Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE
Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.