Flash Flood Prediction Program

-	Message 1's issued for Arapahoe, Douglas and Jefferson Counties will continue valid until 9:00 pm. Additional Message 1's look unlikely as the threat for heavy rainfall is decreasing across the entire forecast area.
-	Showers and thunderstorms have developed and moved across portions of the District this afternoon but the heavy rainfall has remained well outside the District boundaries up to this point. Behind a cold front that moved through today temperatures have firmly consolidated into the 70's across the plains with 60's in the Front Range foothills.
-	Due to cool surface temperatures the threat for convective showers/thunderstorms has diminished resulting in a lower risk for heavy rainfall across the District. There will still be widely scattered to scattered rain showers and possibly a weak thunderstorm possible into the evening but the threat for heavy rainfall has decreased significantly.

STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will produce a trace to 0.2" of rain in 10-30 minutes. Weak thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. Supplemental QPF is available at https://qpf.udfcd.org

WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to briefly strong thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential to produce 0.4-1.2" in 10-30 minutes.

County	Message	Valid Times	Prime Time
the City of Aurora	1	Current TO 900 PM	Current TO 800 PM
Arvada	1	Current TO 900 PM	Current TO 800 PM
Arapahoe County	1	Current TO 900 PM	Current TO 800 PM
Jefferson County	1	Current TO 900 PM	Current TO 800 PM
Douglas County	1	Current TO 900 PM	Current TO 800 PM
Wheat Ridge	1	Current TO 900 PM	Current TO 800 PM
Lakewood	1	Current TO 900 PM	Current TO 800 PM

County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook	Precipitation Time	30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability	Message Potential
Plains
Adams	Current TO 900 PM SUN	Trace (60%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (5%)	LOW
Arapahoe	Current TO 900 PM SUN	Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (10%)	ISSUED
Boulder	Current TO 900 PM SUN	Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.6" (10%)	LOW
Broomfield	Current TO 900 PM SUN	Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (10%)	LOW
Denver	Current TO 900 PM SUN	Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.6" (10%)	LOW
Douglas	Current TO 900 PM SUN	Trace (90%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (20%)	ISSUED
Jefferson	Current TO 900 PM SUN	Trace (80%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.6" (15%)	ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder	Current TO 900 PM SUN	Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (10%)	LOW
Douglas	Current TO 900 PM SUN	Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.6" (30%)	ISSUED
Jefferson	Current TO 900 PM SUN	Trace (95%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (25%)	ISSUED

MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.