Time: 850 AM Tue September 10, 2019 Forecaster: Nick Barlow

Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program

CONTINUED WARM WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS
-SW flow aloft remains over the Central Rockies Tuesday, ahead of a Pacific trough of low pressure digging into the Great Basin. Daytime temperatures will be similar to Monday’s readings, topping out in the mid 80s by afternoon.
-Enough moisture exists for a few showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and evening, favoring the northern portions of the District. The threat for heavy rainfall is low, but an isolated stronger thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.
-Today's showers and thunderstorms will track to the NE at around 15-20mph, with the best chance for a storm over the District occurring between about 4:00pm-8:00pm.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate showers and thunderstorms will produce rainfall amounts between Trace-0.20" in 10-30 minutes. Isolated stronger thunderstorms could produce rainfall between 0.20-0.50" in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm anchored to a convergence boundary results in rainfall up to 1.20" in 45-75 minutes.

A LOOK AHEAD: The mentioned trough swings through the Northern Rockies on Wednesday, which will lead to a slight uptick in shower and thunderstorms across the area, once again favoring northern portions of the District.

Location Prime Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams 400 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (70%) to 0.2" (35%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW
Arapahoe 400 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (65%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (5%) LOW
Boulder 400 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (70%) to 0.2" (35%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW
Broomfield 400 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (70%) to 0.2" (35%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW
Denver 400 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (65%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (5%) LOW
Douglas 400 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (60%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (5%) LOW
Jefferson 400 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (65%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (5%) LOW
Foothills above 6500ft      
Boulder 300 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.2" (35%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW
Douglas 300 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (60%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (5%) LOW
Jefferson 300 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (65%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (5%) LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.