Time: 959 AM Mon May 15, 2023 Forecaster: Laura Smith

Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program

SCATTERED AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
Ridge building across the Desert Southwest will support a warming trend and scattered rain showers and thunderstorms over the coming days. Today will be mostly cloudy with highs in the mid to upper 60s, dew points in the mid to upper 40s, with rain showers gradually moving across the area throughout the day.

Light to briefly moderate rain showers are expected late this morning through the early evening hours. Storm motions will generally be from the west-northwest with the best time for showers between 4PM and 8PM. Despite somewhat favorable dewpoints along with PWAT values around 0.70in, westerly upper-level flow will stifle developing storms as they descend higher terrain onto the plains. Skies will clear overnight.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a TR-0.10” in 10-30 minutes. A moderate rain shower/isolated thunderstorm could produce 0.10”-0.25” in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored rain shower/isolated thunderstorm, or training of rain showers, has the potential to produce 0.25”-0.75” in 45-60 minutes.

A LOOK AHEAD: The springtime thunderstorm pattern remains in place with warmer temperatures and afternoon thunderstorms persisting. Tuesday and Wednesday will be similar, with mostly sunny morning skies followed by a round of afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will reach the mid 70s to low 80s. Looking ahead, A cold front will sweep across the Front Range Urban Corridor early Thursday, followed by overcast skies, stratified rain showers, and highs reaching the upper 60s to low 70s.

Location Prime Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams 400 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.25" (10%) NONE
Arapahoe 400 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.25" (10%) NONE
Boulder 400 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.25" (10%) NONE
Broomfield 400 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.25" (10%) NONE
Denver 400 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.25" (10%) NONE
Douglas 400 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.25" (10%) NONE
Jefferson 400 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.25" (10%) NONE
Foothills above 6500ft      
Boulder 300 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.25" (20%) LOW
Douglas 300 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.25" (20%) LOW
Jefferson 300 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.25" (20%) LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
https://f2p2.udfcd.org/generator/