| Message 2’s have been issued for the entire District effective from noon until 1159pm this evening. Strong southwesterly upper-level flow across Colorado will support an environment for another active day of showers and thunderstorms in the district. Daytime heating will create an unstable environment favoring widespread clustered thunderstorms by the mid to late afternoon. High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 70s with dew points in the low to mid 50s. Low level moisture remains elevated from widespread heavy rain yesterday. Precipitable water (PWAT) values have decreased some, though look to be in the 0.70-0.80” range today. This combination will result in storms with the potential for locally heavy rainfall. The best chance for storm activity will be from noon through 11:00pm, with weaker rainfall/thunderstorms likely after 11am and into the overnight. Storms will have their typical West to east motions. However, some erratic storm movement will be likely from outflow boundaries resulting in the possibility of a few stationary storms. These stationary storms will produce the largest threat for heavy rainfall today with both threats 0.5” in 10-15 minutes and the possibility of rainfall to exceed 1” per hour on longer lasting storms. Storms today may also become severe, with large hail, up to 2”, gusty winds 60+ mph and heavy localized rainfall. |
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Anchored or slow-moving thunderstorms have the potential to produce 1.50” to 2.20” in 45 to 60 minutes.
| County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook |
Precipitation Time | 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability |
Message Potential |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plains | |||
| Adams |
1200 PM TO
1159 PM |
0.5" (90%) to 1" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) | |
| Arapahoe |
1200 PM TO
1159 PM |
0.5" (90%) to 1" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) | |
| Boulder |
1200 PM TO
1159 PM |
0.5" (90%) to 1" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) | |
| Broomfield |
1200 PM TO
1159 PM |
0.5" (90%) to 1" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) | |
| Denver |
1200 PM TO
1159 PM |
0.5" (90%) to 1" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) | |
| Douglas |
1200 PM TO
1159 PM |
0.5" (90%) to 1" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) | |
| Jefferson |
1200 PM TO
1159 PM |
0.5" (90%) to 1" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) | |
| Foothills above 6500ft | |||
| Boulder |
1200 PM TO
1159 PM |
0.5" (90%) to 1" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) | |
| Douglas |
1200 PM TO
1159 PM |
0.5" (90%) to 1" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) | |
| Jefferson |
1200 PM TO
1159 PM |
0.5" (90%) to 1" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) |
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.