Time: 948 AM Sun July 21, 2019 Forecaster: Justin Brooks

Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program

CONTINUED WARM WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
-Similar conditions as yesterday with temperatures reaching the low to mid 80's across the District. Currently dew points are in the mid to upper 50's and will hold today resulting in a good chance for rain/thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and linger through the evening with showers possible through Monday morning.
-Thunderstorms will initially develop over the foothills by midday, while the plains should remain capped initially. By early-afternoon, thunderstorm chances will increase over the plains as storms move eastward with a chance for thunderstorms to become severe bringing hail up to 1", gusty winds and heavy rainfall. In addition, outflow boundaries may set up over portions of the District and act as a focal point for thunderstorm development late into the evening.
-Storms today will be slightly faster moving, between 10-15mph, which will help lower the overall threat for heavy rainfall, although storms could exhibit weak/erratic movement at times, along with the potential to stall along outflow or wind convergence boundaries which could enhance heavy rainfall over localized areas. The best chance for thunderstorms will persist into the late evening hours, before storm coverage and intensity gradually decreases after midnight, with chances for showers to persist into Monday with a lower chance for any heavy rainfall with the loss of daytime heating.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce rainfall amounts of 0.1-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms will be capable of producing rainfall amounts of 0.5-1.5" in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm stalls along a wind convergence boundary and produces heavy rainfall of up to 3.0" in 90-120 minutes.

A LOOK AHEAD: The trend continues into Monday with below average temperatures in the upper 70's to low 80's across the District along with another chance for afternoon rain/thunderstorms, with storms tapering off into the evening. Tuesday will begin to warm back into the mid to upper 80's along with another chance for afternoon rain/thunderstorms, although surface moisture will start to decrease Tuesday resulting in a low chance for heavy rainfall.

Location Prime Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams Current TO 1159 PM SUN
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) HIGH
Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM SUN
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) HIGH
Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SUN
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) HIGH
Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM SUN
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) HIGH
Denver Current TO 1159 PM SUN
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) HIGH
Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SUN
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) HIGH
Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SUN
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) HIGH
Foothills above 6500ft      
Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SUN
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (10%) MOD
Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SUN
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (10%) MOD
Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SUN
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (10%) MOD
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