Time: 1001 AM Fri June 21, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith

Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program

Showers and Thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening
An upper-level disturbance over the Great Basin will be responsible for another round of thunderstorms today. Morning cloud cover will support slightly cooler temperatures this afternoon. Highs will reach the mid to upper 80s, with a few areas breaking 90°F. Atmospheric moisture remains elevated with steering winds aloft from the southwest. Dewpoints will be in the low to mid 50s with precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.85”. Convection initiation is expected during the early afternoon, with chances for showers and thunderstorms continuing into the evening. Storms will generally move east-northeast between 25-30 mph. Thunderstorm activity is expected to dissipate by mid-evening.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Thunderstorms today have the potential to produce up to 0.75” in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong thunderstorms may be capable of producing 1.50” to 2.00” in 60 minutes or less.

A LOOK AHEAD: High pressure ridging begins building across the four-corners region overnight, supporting hot and mostly dry conditions through the weekend and into early next week. On Saturday, afternoon highs will reach the upper 80s to low 90s under sunny skies. Sunday will be hot, sunny, and dry with highs in the low to mid 90s. Monday will be dry and exceptionally hot as temperatures soar into the upper 90s. Some areas may reach or exceed 100°F.

Location Prime Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM
0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD
Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM
0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD
Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM
0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD
Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM
0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD
Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM
0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD
Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM
0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD
Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM
0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD
Foothills above 6500ft      
Boulder 100 PM TO 700 PM
0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD
Douglas 100 PM TO 700 PM
0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD
Jefferson 100 PM TO 700 PM
0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
https://f2p2.udfcd.org/generator/