Time: 955 AM Fri July 5, 2019 Forecaster: Justin Brooks

Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program

SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
-A short-wave trough will move through Wyoming this afternoon, coupled with a weak cold front from the NW will bring a good chance again today for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with showers/thunderstorms possible into the overnight hours.
-Early morning cloud cover will limit high temperatures today into the low 80's for most portions of the District, with elevated surface moisture present throughout the day in the mid to upper 50's and decent upper level support still in place will result in storms becoming severe this afternoon with the best chance for severe thunderstorms along the southern and eastern portions of the District.
-Storm motion today will be to the NE at 10-15mph, with the best chance for showers/thunderstorms between 2-8pm with a good chance of showers through Saturday morning, however any chance of severe weather will diminish after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce rainfall amounts of TR-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. A strong thunderstorm will be capable of producing rainfall of up to 1.0" in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of thunderstorm cells along an outflow boundary results in heavy rainfall of up to 2.4" in 60-90 minutes.

A LOOK AHEAD: A continued chance for showers and thunderstorms this weekend with deep moisture in place on Saturday their will be a good chance for widespread afternoon thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall. Thunderstorm activity will become more isolated in coverage on Sunday and Monday but some potential will remain for heavy rainfall.

Location Prime Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD
Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD
Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD
Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD
Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD
Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD
Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD
Foothills above 6500ft      
Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.0" (10%) LOW
Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.0" (10%) LOW
Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.0" (10%) LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.