Flash Flood Prediction Program

-	Message 1's have been issued for Adams, Arapahoe/Aurora, Denver/DIA, and Douglas Counties and are valid until 8pm this evening.
-	Thunderstorms have developed E of I-25 over the District as an upper level low pressure system emerges onto the plains. Thunderstorm activity will continue possible through the afternoon becoming less likely after 5 or 6pm as temperatures cool and precipitation becomes more stratiform in nature versus convective currently.
-	The stronger thunderstorm activity is expected to remain confined to areas generally along and E of I-25 as there is better surface convergence with weaker storms westward towards the foothills.

STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.5" of rain in 10-30 minutes. Weak/moderate and briefly strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.9" of rain in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms are expected to produce more hail than rainfall. Steady moderate to heavy rain may produce 0.4-1.2" in 45-75 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of thunderstorm cells may produce up to 1.4" in 45-90 minutes.

County	Message	Valid Times	Prime Time
Douglas County	1	Current TO 800 PM	Current TO 600 PM
Adams County	1	Current TO 800 PM	Current TO 600 PM
Denver County	1	Current TO 800 PM	Current TO 600 PM
DIA	1	Current TO 800 PM	Current TO 600 PM
Arapahoe County	1	Current TO 800 PM	Current TO 600 PM
the City of Aurora	1	Current TO 800 PM	Current TO 600 PM

County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook	Precipitation Time	60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability	Message Potential
Plains
Adams	Current TO 800 PM TUE	0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (80%) to 1.2" (25%)	ISSUED
Arapahoe	Current TO 800 PM TUE	0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (80%) to 1.2" (25%)	ISSUED
Boulder	Current TO 800 PM TUE	0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.2" (10%)	LOW
Broomfield	Current TO 800 PM TUE	0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.2" (10%)	LOW
Denver	Current TO 800 PM TUE	0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (80%) to 1.2" (25%)	ISSUED
Douglas	Current TO 800 PM TUE	0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (80%) to 1.2" (25%)	ISSUED
Jefferson	Current TO 800 PM TUE	0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.2" (10%)	LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder	Current TO 800 PM TUE	0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (10%)	LOW
Douglas	Current TO 800 PM TUE	0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (10%)	LOW
Jefferson	Current TO 800 PM TUE	0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (10%)	LOW

MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.