Time: 454 PM Wed July 27, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons

Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program

MESSAGE 1'S CONTINUE VALID/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT STORMS LIKELY
-Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will continue valid until midnight and possibly beyond. There are some signs that thunderstorm activity may persist and continue well past midnight into the early morning hours on Thursday resulting in Message 1's possibly being extended late this evening.
-Although conditions have been quiet up to this point a cold front is expected to move through this evening and increase surface moisture from already elevated levels. Thunderstorms that develop later today and tonight will be very capable of producing heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff.
-Best chances for stronger thunderstorms will likely be after 7 or 8pm through about midnight. Additional rain showers and more isolated thunderstorms will remain possible into the overnight period.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a 0.1-0.5" of rainfall. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.5" in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving thunderstorm or anchored thunderstorm has the potential to produce up to 2.6" of heavy rainfall in 45-75 minutes.

County Message Valid Times Prime Time
Boulder County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 700 PM TO 1130 PM
Jefferson County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 700 PM TO 1130 PM
Broomfield County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 700 PM TO 1130 PM
Douglas County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 700 PM TO 1130 PM
Adams County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 700 PM TO 1130 PM
Denver County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 700 PM TO 1130 PM
DIA 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 700 PM TO 1130 PM
Arapahoe County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 700 PM TO 1130 PM
the City of Aurora 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 700 PM TO 1130 PM
Arvada 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 700 PM TO 1130 PM
Wheat Ridge 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 700 PM TO 1130 PM
Lakewood 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 700 PM TO 1130 PM

County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook
Precipitation Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams 600 PM TO 1159 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED
Arapahoe 600 PM TO 1159 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED
Boulder 600 PM TO 1159 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED
Broomfield 600 PM TO 1159 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED
Denver 600 PM TO 1159 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED
Douglas 600 PM TO 1159 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED
Jefferson 600 PM TO 1159 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft      
Boulder Current TO 1159 PM WED
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED
Douglas Current TO 1159 PM WED
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED
Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM WED
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
https://f2p2.udfcd.org/generator/