| Once again, there is very little change to the overall pattern as another good chance remains for widespread storms across the District this afternoon and early evening. Dew points are currently all over the place with anywhere from mid 40’s to mid 50’s throughout the District and will likely hold in place through the rest of the day. These elevated surface dew points will suggest moderate to heavy rainfall, similar to yesterday, as storm movements once again remain minimal. This will bring a good chance for a quick 0.4-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. Training of rain showers could also play a key component today as multiple rounds of moderate showers could lead to rainfall in excess of 1” per hour today. The best chance for storms will be from 1-8pm. Storm motions will once again be slow to nearly stationary from the S/SW higher terrain, moving N/NE and onto the plains. Additional storms will also likley form along outflow boundaries, leading to some erratic storm movement. This storm motion, combined with good available moisture will result in a MODERATE likelihood of Message 1’s being issued today. This is also in part to an already saturated surface which will result in easy pooling of water and quick creek/stream rises leading to localized flooding. Storms today also have a good chance of producing some large hail, gusty winds, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. |
10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stalled moderate to strong thunderstorm, or a thunderstorm that anchors off an outflow boundary will have the potential to produce up to 2.4” in under 60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Much of the same tomorrow as the chance for a heavy rainfall threat continues. A better chance for a few showers in the morning hours Wednesday with a good chance for widespread moderate to heavy rainfall with a slight chance for severe weather in the afternoon and early evening. This pattern holds Thursday, bringing another good chance of widespread moderate to heavy rainfall across the District.
| Location | Prime Time | 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability |
Message Potential |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plains | |||
| Adams |
200 PM TO
800 PM |
0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) | |
| Arapahoe |
200 PM TO
800 PM |
0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) | |
| Boulder |
200 PM TO
800 PM |
0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) | |
| Broomfield |
200 PM TO
800 PM |
0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) | |
| Denver |
200 PM TO
800 PM |
0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) | |
| Douglas |
200 PM TO
800 PM |
0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) | |
| Jefferson |
200 PM TO
800 PM |
0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) | |
| Foothills above 6500ft | |||
| Boulder |
100 PM TO
700 PM |
0.2" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) | |
| Douglas |
100 PM TO
700 PM |
0.2" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) | |
| Jefferson |
100 PM TO
700 PM |
0.2" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) |
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.