Time: 1006 AM Mon May 27, 2019 Forecaster: Justin Brooks

Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program

ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
-Surface moisture has decreased slightly from yesterday with morning dew points in the low to mid 40's which will allow for some storms to produce brief heavy rainfall which may lead to excessive runoff, favoring areas north of I-70, although a strong storm south of I-70 can't be ruled out today and into this evening.
-Thunderstorms will initiate over the foothills this afternoon and then spread northeastward onto the plains. Storms will be relatively fast moving from SW to NE at 15-25mph with one to three rounds of storms likely through the early evening with thunderstorms turning over to widespread on and off showers overnight into Tuesday.
-Temperatures will reach the low to mid 70's over the District before cloud cover increases this afternoon. An upper level disturbance moving through northern Colorado today will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms some of which may become severe and capable of producing brief heavy rainfall, gusty winds and hail.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.4". Strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce up to 0.4-0.8" in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving strong thunderstorm or training of strong thunderstorm cells may result in up to 2.0" in 60-90 minutes.

A LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday will bring a good chance for off and on widespread showers for most of the day and into Wednesday, although the threat for any heavy rain will remain minimal as temperatures remain cool in the 50's. Another cool day Wednesday in the mid to upper 50's with another chance for afternoon/evening showers/thunderstorms, with a low threat for any heavy rain.

Location Prime Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) MOD
Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) MOD
Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) MOD
Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) MOD
Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) MOD
Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW
Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW
Foothills above 6500ft      
Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW
Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW
Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.