| Drier air aloft is moving into Colorado from the northwest today as warmer surface conditions continue to build into the region from the south. Afternoon highs will reach the mid to upper 80s, dew points in the upper 40s to low 50s, and precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.85”. These temperatures and moisture values favor heavy rainfall across the District, but a drying mid-level and weak upper-level flow will discourage organized convection. Due to these conflicting forces, there is still some uncertainty about the rainfall forecast today. However, heavy precipitation is still possible if afternoon orographic convection sufficiently erodes the capping inversion. If this scenario resolves, isolated storms are possible across the District, with the best chances south of i-70. Storm motions will be from west to east around 10 mph. Storms will begin clearing by the early evening, with precipitation concluding by the mid to late evening. |
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Stronger, slow-moving storms may produce moderate to briefly heavy rainfall up to 1.50” in 60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow will be exceptionally hot as a ridge of highs pressure advances north. Afternoon temperatures will soar into the mid 90s under sunny skies. Thursday will be similar as sweltering conditions persist. Highs will once again reach the mid 90s under sunny skies, followed by slight chances for isolated afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms.
| Location | Prime Time | 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability |
Message Potential |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plains | |||
| Adams |
200 PM TO
800 PM |
0.25" (15%) to 0.5" (10%) to 0.75" (5%) | |
| Arapahoe |
200 PM TO
800 PM |
0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (15%) to 0.75" (10%) | |
| Boulder |
200 PM TO
800 PM |
0.25" (15%) to 0.5" (10%) to 0.75" (5%) | |
| Broomfield |
200 PM TO
800 PM |
0.25" (15%) to 0.5" (10%) to 0.75" (5%) | |
| Denver |
200 PM TO
800 PM |
0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (15%) to 0.75" (10%) | |
| Douglas |
200 PM TO
800 PM |
0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (15%) to 0.75" (10%) | |
| Jefferson |
200 PM TO
800 PM |
0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (15%) to 0.75" (10%) | |
| Foothills above 6500ft | |||
| Boulder |
200 PM TO
700 PM |
0.25" (15%) to 0.5" (10%) to 0.75" (5%) | |
| Douglas |
200 PM TO
800 PM |
0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (15%) to 0.75" (10%) | |
| Jefferson |
200 PM TO
800 PM |
0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (15%) to 0.75" (10%) |
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.