Time: 950 AM Thu June 6, 2019 Forecaster: Alan Smith

Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program

WARM WITH ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN
-High pressure will strengthen over Eastern Colorado today, leading to warm temperatures and mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with highs in the low 80s on the plains.
-Low level moisture is on the decline today while warmer air aloft will limit instability this afternoon. Isolated high-based thunderstorms will develop over the higher foothills and Palmer Divide by early to mid afternoon. A few weak thunderstorms could drift onto the plains late this afternoon or evening, but most of today's activity will remain confined to the higher terrain.
-Showers and thunderstorms today will be weak and high-based, producing light rainfall and gusty winds. Thunderstorm activity will quickly diminish after sunset.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and weak thunderstorms will produce rainfall amounts of TR-0.1" in 10-30 minutes. Stronger thunderstorms could produce rainfall of 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: An isolated stronger thunderstorm becomes stationary over an area, resulting in rainfall of up to 0.6" in 30-60 minutes.

A LOOK AHEAD: Southwest flow aloft ahead of an advancing trough will lead to warmer temperatures on Friday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Instability will be greater on Friday afternoon with a slight uptick in moisture leading to a better chance of thunderstorms favoring eastern portions of the District. Moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible under stronger storms. On Saturday, a strong cold front will arrive in the afternoon, with a round of thunderstorms likely with the frontal passage. Much cooler and more stable conditions will prevail Saturday night through Sunday with light rain showers expected at times.

Location Prime Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams 400 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE
Arapahoe 400 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE
Boulder 400 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (35%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE
Broomfield 400 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE
Denver 400 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE
Douglas 400 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (35%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE
Jefferson 400 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (35%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE
Foothills above 6500ft      
Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE
Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE
Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.