Time: 940 AM Mon July 18, 2022 Forecaster: Laura Smith

Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program

HOT TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
-Flow aloft will be westerly throughout the day, creating conditions for isolated showers across the District. Very hot, record-breaking conditions are expected today. Temperatures will climb to triple digits across much of the District with dew points in the mid to upper 40's. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will produce minimal precipitation, with a very low chance for moderate to heavy rainfall.
-Storms will begin developing over the foothills before 2pm and are expected to move east-northeast across the District. Prime time for storms today is from 2pm to 8pm. Typical thunderstorms will produce light to briefly moderate rainfall, mostly favoring areas in and around the foothills.
-Skies will gradually clear this evening with mild and dry conditions expected through the overnight and into Thursday. Overnight lows will dip into the low to mid 60's on the plains with low to mid 50's along the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of moisture. Moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Anchoring thunderstorms will have the potential to produce moderate to briefly heavy rainfall of 0.4-0.8" in 10-30 minutes and up to 1.5" in 45-60 minutes.

A LOOK AHEAD: Hot conditions with afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue this week as a heat dome remains parked over the four-corners region. Similar conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday as high temperatures remain in the 90's with isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. This pattern is expected to continue through the remainder of this week and into the weekend.

Location Prime Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW
Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW
Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW
Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW
Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW
Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW
Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW
Foothills above 6500ft      
Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW
Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW
Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
https://f2p2.udfcd.org/generator/