Time: 1004 AM Mon May 6, 2019 Forecaster: Alan Smith

Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program

COOLER WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
-A cold front has backed its way into the District this morning, leading to areas of low clouds and fog as well as cooler temperatures. Gradual clearing is expected through early/mid afternoon with highs reaching the mid to upper 60s on the plains.
-Upslope flow is ushering in greater low level moisture to the District, with the the nearly stationary frontal boundary likely to act as a focal point for thunderstorm development, provided there is enough clearing in the cloud cover. Storms will be fast-moving to the E/NE at 20-30mph, but stronger storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall in a short period of time. Small to moderate hail and gusty winds will also be possible under stronger storms. Storms today will likely favor southern and eastern portions of the District.
-An upper level disturbance moving through overnight could produce additional late evening and overnight showers and possibly some isolated thunderstorms. However, rainfall amounts overnight are expected to be light.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and thunderstorms will produce rainfall amounts of 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes, with up to 0.7" possible in 10-30 minutes under stronger storms.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: An isolated strong/severe thunderstorm stalls along a wind convergence boundary and produces heavy rainfall of up to 1.8" in 60-75 minutes.

A LOOK AHEAD: A slow-moving upper level trough will bring unsettled weather to the District over the next several days. Most cloudy skies and cooler temperatures can be expected Tuesday with more numerous showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible under stronger thunderstorms. Wet conditions will continue Wednesday and Thursday, but a colder and more stable airmass will settle in, which should end the threat for heavy rainfall.

Location Prime Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams 300 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (45%) to 0.7" (20%) MOD
Arapahoe 300 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.7" (25%) MOD
Broomfield 300 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.7" (15%) MOD
Denver 300 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.7" (15%) MOD
Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.7" (15%) MOD
Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.7" (25%) MOD
Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.7" (15%) MOD
Foothills above 6500ft      
Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.7" (15%) MOD
Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.7" (25%) MOD
Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (45%) to 0.7" (15%) MOD
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.