| - | An unsettled weather pattern remains over the District today with temperatures running slightly cooler than average. Partly cloudy skies this morning will become mostly cloudy this afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s on the plains. |
| - | Isolated thunderstorms will develop over the foothills by midday, before spreading onto the plains early to mid afternoon. These initial thunderstorms will likely be on the weaker side with generally light to moderate rainfall expected. By late afternoon/early evening, a wind convergence boundary near the Wyoming border is projected to push southward into the District, ushering in greater low level moisture. |
| - | Stronger and more widespread thunderstorms are expected over the District by early evening as the boundary arrives. Storm motions will be to the E/SE at 12-17mph and strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall, large hail, and gusty straight-line winds. Storm activity could continue well into the evening before gradually diminishing overnight. There is a chance that the convergence boundary doesn't push as far south as expected, and there's also a chance that temperatures cool more than expected behind the boundary to limit convection. If either of these scenarios occur, then the threat for heavy rainfall would decrease. |
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm stalls along a wind convergence boundary, resulting in heavy rainfall of up to 2.75" in 90-120 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Significant low level moisture will remain in place over the District on Monday, while a potent upper level disturbance moves across Colorado, resulting in widespread afternoon thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the mid 70s on the plains. Another disturbance will arrive from the northwest on Tuesday with additional thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall. A break in the pattern will arrive on Wednesday and Thursday with warmer and drier conditions.
| Location | Prime Time | 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability |
Message Potential |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plains | |||
| Adams |
300 PM TO
1100 PM |
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (15%) | |
| Arapahoe |
300 PM TO
1100 PM |
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (45%) to 1.2" (10%) | |
| Boulder |
300 PM TO
1100 PM |
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (15%) | |
| Broomfield |
300 PM TO
1100 PM |
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (15%) | |
| Denver |
300 PM TO
1100 PM |
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (15%) | |
| Douglas |
300 PM TO
1100 PM |
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (45%) to 1.2" (10%) | |
| Jefferson |
300 PM TO
1100 PM |
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (15%) | |
| Foothills above 6500ft | |||
| Boulder |
100 PM TO
1100 PM |
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (15%) | |
| Douglas |
100 PM TO
1100 PM |
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (45%) to 1.2" (10%) | |
| Jefferson |
100 PM TO
1100 PM |
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (15%) |
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.