| Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 11:59 PM, with a chance Messages will have to be extended through the overnight if the heavy rainfall threat persists after midnight tonight. Temperatures have been suppressed this morning, which could help limit the potential for severe thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening. However, good upper-level dynamics heading into the afternoon and evening will likely result in widespread rain showers and thunderstorms with a good chance for isolated heavy rainfall, leading to some localized flash flooding. Storm motions today will be generally fast from south to north, between 10-15mph which should help limit point rainfall amounts. Additional storms formed along outflow boundaries will have the largest potential to produce longer lasting heavy rainfall. The best chance for heavy rainfall producing storms will be from 1pm this afternoon through midnight tonight. Off and on rain shower chances will likely continue overnight and into daybreak Thursday. The threat for heavy rainfall should diminish after midnight, however, with significant moisture in place both at the surface and upper levels, there will be a chance for rain showers that could produce rainfall rates exceeding 1" per hour through the overnight and into Thursday. |
minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow moving/stationary thunderstorm formed off an outflow boundary, or training of thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce up to 2.0" in under 60 minutes.
| County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook |
Precipitation Time | 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability |
Message Potential |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plains | |||
| Adams |
100 PM TO
1159 PM |
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%) | |
| Arapahoe |
100 PM TO
1159 PM |
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%) | |
| Boulder |
100 PM TO
1159 PM |
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%) | |
| Broomfield |
100 PM TO
1159 PM |
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%) | |
| Denver |
100 PM TO
1159 PM |
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%) | |
| Douglas |
100 PM TO
1159 PM |
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%) | |
| Jefferson |
100 PM TO
1159 PM |
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%) | |
| Foothills above 6500ft | |||
| Boulder |
100 PM TO
1159 PM |
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1" (20%) | |
| Douglas |
100 PM TO
1159 PM |
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1" (20%) | |
| Jefferson |
100 PM TO
1159 PM |
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1" (20%) |
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.