Time: 958 AM Sat July 6, 2019 Forecaster: Justin Brooks

Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program

COOL TODAY WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
-Very little has changed in the overall weather pattern today. SW flow aloft combined with elevated surface moisture with dew points in the mid to upper 50s across the District will result in another good chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon/early evening.
-Early morning cloud cover will limit high temperatures today into the upper 70's to low 80's for most portions of the District, with elevated surface moisture present throughout the day and a weak upper level disturbance moving through this afternoon will result in a good chance for storms to become severe this afternoon with the best chance for severe thunderstorms along the southern and eastern portions of the District.
-Storm motion today will be to the E/NE at 10-15mph, with the best chance for showers/thunderstorms between 2-8pm with showers tapering of this evening with any chance of severe weather diminishing rapidly after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce rainfall amounts of TR-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. A strong thunderstorm will be capable of producing rainfall of up to 1.0" in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of thunderstorms, or a stationary strong thunderstorm results in heavy rainfall of up to 2.4" in 60-90 minutes.

A LOOK AHEAD: Dominant SW upper level flow will remain on Sunday, bringing yet another chance for moderate to heavy rainfall, although the risk for severe weather will be less likely. Monday, a stronger disturbance is poised to move over the region bringing back chances for strong to severe thunderstorms across the District. Tuesday will finally begin to dry out slightly, however a chance will remain for afternoon/evening showers/thunderstorms, with a very low chance they will produce heavy rainfall.

Location Prime Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) HIGH
Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) HIGH
Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD
Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) HIGH
Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) HIGH
Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) HIGH
Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD
Foothills above 6500ft      
Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD
Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD
Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.