Mild and dry currently, a change is in the air today as a cold front is poised to move through the region this afternoon. This cold front should have no issues getting a few showers and isolated thunderstorms going this afternoon and possibly into the evening hours. Slightly less moisture at the surface currently should increase behind the cold front bringing dew points back into the upper 50’s to around 60. This will result in a MODERATE chance for Message 1’s as the potential for a quick 0.25-0.75” in 10-30 minutes will be possible today. Initial storm development will be along the higher terrain by midday with showers/isolated thunderstorms moving into the District between 2-8pm. Storm motions will continue to be brisk from W to E between 15-25mph, effectively limiting any point rainfall amounts. However, a stronger storm will have the potential to produce outflow boundaries which additional storm develop could stall out along, bringing the best chance for moderate to brief heavy rainfall, favoring eastern portions of the District at this time. Skies will stay partly through the overnight with lows in the mid to upper 50’s on the plains with low 50’s along the foothills.

STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers/weak thunderstorms will produce a 0.05-0.25” total, in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.25-0.75” total in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger, stalled out thunderstorm formed along an outflow boundary is able to develop, will have the potential to produce up to 1.25” total, in under 60 minutes.

A LOOK AHEAD: Cooler temperatures behind this cold front will dictate the strength of storms tomorrow as highs are expected to stay in the 70s. An uptick in overall moisture will likely bring a chance for moderate to brief heavy rainfall throughout most of the afternoon with chances picking up into the evening. Storm chances remain Monday, with another decent chance for afternoon/eve showers/isolated thunderstorms.