Time: 143 PM Tue July 16, 2024 Forecaster: Aaron O

Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program

MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL 10:00 PM
Storms have initiated over the District this afternoon and will continue into the evening hours. A few moderate to heavy showers have already impacted areas north with additional storms likely for most areas within the District as storms have increased in coverage towards the west.

Storm motions are 15-25 mph from west-northwest to east-southeast, which should limit point rainfall amounts, but storms have been anchoring over specific areas which could result in higher isolated rainfall amounts. The biggest threat will be this afternoon and early evening will be a quick 0.40-0.80” in 10-30 minutes. Storms will continue to impact the region over the next several hours with lingering showers possible into the late evening. Storms also contain some hail and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning.


Once the initial round of storms moves through the District, storms will dissipate in strength into the later evening with a few scattered showers possible. Skies will gradually clear overnight with temperatures dropping into the low to mid 50s.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and thunderstorms will produce 0.10-0.40” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.40-0.80” total in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Stationary thunderstorms, or training of thunderstorm cells have the potential to produce up to 1.50” total in 30-60 minutes.

County Message Valid Times Prime Time
Wheat Ridge 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM
Lakewood 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM
Adams County 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM
Denver County 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM
DIA 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM
Arapahoe County 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM
the City of Aurora 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM
Arvada 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM
Broomfield County 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM
Douglas County 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM
Jefferson County 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM
Boulder County 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM

County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook
Precipitation Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams 200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED
Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED
Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED
Broomfield 200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED
Denver 200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED
Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED
Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft      
Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.3" (70%) to 0.5" (40%) to 0.9" (10%) ISSUED
Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.3" (70%) to 0.5" (40%) to 0.9" (10%) ISSUED
Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.3" (70%) to 0.5" (40%) to 0.9" (10%) ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
https://f2p2.udfcd.org/generator/