Time: 1041 PM Thu August 12, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons

Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program

MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT
-Message 1's have been issued for all areas of the District EXCEPT Boulder and Broomfield Counties at this time. Boulder and Broomfield Counties may be included over the next hour.
-An outflow boundary has moved into the District and is beginning to initiate thunderstorm development along the I-25 corridor S of I-70 currently. These storms are expected to become stronger and will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall this evening and overnight.
-Best chances for thunderstorm activity will be along and E of the I-25 corridor where moisture is deeper with a lesser chance for strong storms further W, but conditions may evolve. Best chances for thunderstorms will be until about 2am Friday morning. Should thunderstorm activity linger through 3am, Message 1's may need to be extended.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall of 0.5-1.5" in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: A nearly stationary strong thunderstorm may result in up to 2.5" of heavy rain in 45-60 minutes.

County Message Valid Times Prime Time
Jefferson County 1 Current TO 300 AM FRIDAY 1100 PM TO 200 AM FRIDAY
Douglas County 1 Current TO 300 AM FRIDAY 1100 PM TO 200 AM FRIDAY
Adams County 1 Current TO 300 AM FRIDAY 1100 PM TO 200 AM FRIDAY
Denver County 1 Current TO 300 AM FRIDAY 1100 PM TO 200 AM FRIDAY
DIA 1 Current TO 300 AM FRIDAY 1100 PM TO 200 AM FRIDAY
Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 300 AM FRIDAY 1100 PM TO 200 AM FRIDAY
the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 300 AM FRIDAY 1100 PM TO 200 AM FRIDAY
Arvada 1 Current TO 300 AM FRIDAY 1100 PM TO 200 AM FRIDAY
Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 300 AM FRIDAY 1100 PM TO 200 AM FRIDAY
Lakewood 1 Current TO 300 AM FRIDAY 1100 PM TO 200 AM FRIDAY

County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook
Precipitation Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams Current TO 300 AM FRI
0.2" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED
Arapahoe Current TO 300 AM FRI
0.2" (100%) to 0.5" (80%) to 1.5" (40%) ISSUED
Boulder Current TO 300 AM FRI
0.2" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH
Broomfield Current TO 300 AM FRI
0.2" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH
Denver Current TO 300 AM FRI
0.2" (100%) to 0.5" (80%) to 1.5" (40%) ISSUED
Douglas Current TO 300 AM FRI
0.2" (100%) to 0.5" (80%) to 1.5" (40%) ISSUED
Jefferson Current TO 300 AM FRI
0.2" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft      
Boulder Current TO 300 AM FRI
0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) HIGH
Douglas Current TO 300 AM FRI
0.2" (100%) to 0.5" (80%) to 1.5" (40%) ISSUED
Jefferson Current TO 300 AM FRI
0.2" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
https://f2p2.udfcd.org/generator/