Time: 1026 AM Mon July 15, 2019 Forecaster: Alan Smith

Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program

ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
-High pressure remains over the Southern Rockies today with the flow of monsoonal moisture into the District. Dewpoints are currently in the upper 40s to low 50s this morning with precipitable water values a bit higher compared to 24 hours ago. Mostly sunny skies early will allow for high temperatures to heat up into the low to mid 90s on the plains by early this afternoon.
-Thunderstorms will initially develop over the foothills by midday, while the plains should remain capped initially. By mid-afternoon, thunderstorm chances will increase over the plains as convective temperatures are reached, along with the higher potential for outflow from foothills/Palmer Divide activity to reach the District. In addition, a wind convergence boundary may set up over southeast portions of the District and act as a focal point for thunderstorm development.
-Storms today will once again be slow-moving due to weak steering flow, which will result in a threat for heavy rainfall with abundant low and mid level moisture in place. General storm motions will be to the E/SE at 5-10mph, but storms could exhibit weak/erratic movement at times, along with the potential to stall along outflow or wind convergence boundaries. The best chance of thunderstorms will persist into the early evening hours, before storm coverage and intensity gradually decreases after sunset.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce rainfall amounts of 0.1-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms will be capable of producing rainfall amounts of 0.4-1.1" in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm stalls along a wind convergence boundary and produces heavy rainfall of up to 2.6" in 60-90 minutes.

A LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday will be another hot day with scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Moderate to brief heavy rains will be possible, but the overall heavy rainfall threat should be lower compared to recent days to a slight decrease in moisture and slight increase in steering flow. A drier westerly flow will develop on Wednesday, resulting in only a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms with minimal if any threat for heavy rains. Thursday and Friday are looking dry at this time with very hot temperatures.

Location Prime Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams 300 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.1" (20%) HIGH
Arapahoe 300 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (95%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.1" (25%) HIGH
Boulder 300 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.1" (20%) HIGH
Broomfield 300 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.1" (20%) HIGH
Denver 300 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.1" (20%) HIGH
Jefferson 300 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.1" (20%) HIGH
Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (95%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.1" (25%) HIGH
Foothills above 6500ft      
Boulder 1230 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (95%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.1" (20%) HIGH
Douglas 1230 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (95%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.1" (25%) HIGH
Jefferson 1230 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (95%) to 0.4" (55%) to 1.1" (20%) HIGH
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.