Flash Flood Prediction Program

-	Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will remain valid until 10pm this evening.
-	A gust front is on the approach from storms that developed over Weld County earlier today and will likely be a trigger for thunderstorms over the coming hours as it moves through the District from N to S. Slow to nearly stationary storm motions will allow for extended periods of heavy rain under stronger storms that are able to develop this afternoon/evening which may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding.
-	QPF estimates have increased from this morning as moisture levels are expected to rise into the later afternoon/evening over the District.

STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms have the potential to produce 0.6-1.8" of heavy rain in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: A nearly stationary strong thunderstorm may result in up to 3.2" in 60-90 minutes.

County	Message	Valid Times	Prime Time
Boulder County	1	Current TO 1000 PM	300 PM TO 900 PM
Jefferson County	1	Current TO 1000 PM	330 PM TO 900 PM
Broomfield County	1	Current TO 1000 PM	400 PM TO 900 PM
Douglas County	1	Current TO 1000 PM	400 PM TO 900 PM
Adams County	1	Current TO 1000 PM	400 PM TO 900 PM
Denver County	1	Current TO 1000 PM	400 PM TO 900 PM
DIA	1	Current TO 1000 PM	400 PM TO 900 PM
Arapahoe County	1	Current TO 1000 PM	400 PM TO 900 PM
the City of Aurora	1	Current TO 1000 PM	400 PM TO 900 PM
Arvada	1	Current TO 1000 PM	400 PM TO 900 PM
Wheat Ridge	1	Current TO 1000 PM	400 PM TO 900 PM
Lakewood	1	Current TO 1000 PM	400 PM TO 900 PM

County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook	Precipitation Time	30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability	Message Potential
Plains
Adams	300 PM TO 1000 PM	0.2" (75%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.8" (20%)	ISSUED
Arapahoe	300 PM TO 1000 PM	0.2" (75%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.8" (20%)	ISSUED
Boulder	300 PM TO 1000 PM	0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (50%) to 1.8" (20%)	ISSUED
Broomfield	300 PM TO 1000 PM	0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (50%) to 1.8" (20%)	ISSUED
Denver	300 PM TO 1000 PM	0.2" (75%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.8" (20%)	ISSUED
Douglas	300 PM TO 1000 PM	0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (50%) to 1.8" (20%)	ISSUED
Jefferson	300 PM TO 1000 PM	0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (50%) to 1.8" (20%)	ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder	300 PM TO 1000 PM	0.2" (90%) to 0.6" (60%) to 1.8" (30%)	ISSUED
Douglas	300 PM TO 1000 PM	0.2" (90%) to 0.6" (60%) to 1.8" (30%)	ISSUED
Jefferson	300 PM TO 1000 PM	0.2" (90%) to 0.6" (60%) to 1.8" (30%)	ISSUED

MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.