| - | Trough of low pressure moving through NE CO will result in a wet period setting up later today into the weekend. As the upper level disturbance approaches thunderstorms will be on the increase early this afternoon becoming scattered to numerous at times into the evening. With abundant moisture at the surface thunderstorms that develop today will be very capable of producing heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. |
| - | Individual thunderstorms will be relatively fast moving from W to E at 20-25mph helping limit point rainfall amounts from a single storm. A cold front moving through this afternoon may be a focus for stronger storms with the potential to produce extended periods of heavy rainfall. Training of thunderstorm cells could also be a culprit for linger duration heavy rainfall. Prime time for thunderstorms is from roughly 1pm to 11pm. |
| - | After 10 or 11pm the convective nature of the precipitation is expected to transition to a more stratiform rainfall and the heavy rainfall threat is expected to wane with additional light to moderate rain showers continuing overnight. If precipitation does not transition to a general rain then Message 1's may need to be extended late this evening. |
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A large slower moving thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 2.5" in 45-75 minutes.
| County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook |
Precipitation Time | 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability |
Message Potential |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plains | |||
| Adams |
Current TO
1159 PM FRI |
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (75%) to 1.2" (50%) | |
| Arapahoe |
Current TO
1159 PM FRI |
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (75%) to 1.2" (50%) | |
| Boulder |
Current TO
1159 PM FRI |
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (75%) to 1.2" (50%) | |
| Broomfield |
Current TO
1159 PM FRI |
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (75%) to 1.2" (50%) | |
| Denver |
Current TO
1159 PM FRI |
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (75%) to 1.2" (50%) | |
| Douglas |
Current TO
1159 PM FRI |
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (75%) to 1.2" (50%) | |
| Jefferson |
Current TO
1159 PM FRI |
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (75%) to 1.2" (50%) | |
| Foothills above 6500ft | |||
| Boulder |
Current TO
1159 PM FRI |
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (75%) to 1.2" (50%) | |
| Douglas |
Current TO
1159 PM FRI |
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (75%) to 1.2" (50%) | |
| Jefferson |
Current TO
1159 PM FRI |
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (75%) to 1.2" (50%) |
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.