Time: 733 PM Tue August 13, 2019 Forecaster: Brad Simmons

Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program

MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT
-Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until midnight.
-Thunderstorm activity well to our E/NE has resulted in a strong gust front/outflow boundary pushing back into the Front Range which is expected to trigger moderate and strong thunderstorms well into the evening. Moisture behind the approaching boundary is abundant and will result in storms that develop having the potential to produce heavy rainfall and possibly severe weather with gusty winds and large hail.
-Best chances for strong thunderstorms will be through midnight. Storms will move from WSW to ENE at 20-30mph helping to reduce point rainfall amounts but back building storms may produce extended periods of heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Moderate to strong thunderstorms will produce 0.4-1.0" in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training or back building of strong storm cells results in rainfall up to 2.20" in 60-90 minutes.

County Message Valid Times Prime Time
Boulder County 1 Current TO 1159 PM 800 PM TO 1130 PM
Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1159 PM 800 PM TO 1130 PM
Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1159 PM 800 PM TO 1130 PM
Douglas County 1 Current TO 1159 PM 800 PM TO 1130 PM
Adams County 1 Current TO 1159 PM 800 PM TO 1130 PM
Denver County 1 Current TO 1159 PM 800 PM TO 1130 PM
DIA 1 Current TO 1159 PM 800 PM TO 1130 PM
Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1159 PM 800 PM TO 1130 PM
the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1159 PM 800 PM TO 1130 PM
Arvada 1 Current TO 1159 PM 800 PM TO 1130 PM
Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1159 PM 800 PM TO 1130 PM
Lakewood 1 Current TO 1159 PM 800 PM TO 1130 PM

County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook
Precipitation Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams Current TO 1159 PM TUE
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED
Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM TUE
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED
Boulder Current TO 1159 PM TUE
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED
Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM TUE
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED
Denver Current TO 1159 PM TUE
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED
Douglas Current TO 1159 PM TUE
0.1" (85%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (10%) ISSUED
Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM TUE
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft      
Boulder Current TO 1159 PM TUE
0.1" (85%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (10%) ISSUED
Douglas Current TO 1159 PM TUE
0.1" (85%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (10%) ISSUED
Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM TUE
0.1" (85%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (10%) ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.