Time: 226 PM Thu September 14, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks

Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program

MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL 9:00 PM
A cold front will pass through the Front Range Urban Corridor keeping fall-like temperatures in place and will likely bring widespread rain showers and thunderstorms. Highs this afternoon will be stunted, only reaching the mid 70s for the plains with upper 60s to low 70s along the foothills. Showers and thunderstorms have initiated along the foothills and will increase in coverage over the next hour or so. Showers and thunderstorms become widespread between 4-6 PM. Chances of severe storms are very unlikely within the District as temperatures remain cool today, however, elevated available moisture will bring pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall which could potentially lead to some localized flooding under stronger storms. The peak timing for heavy rainfall will be between 4-8pm. Thunderstorm and heavy rainfall chances will likely dissipate by 8-9pm with widespread light to moderate showers dominating the area and continuing through the overnight. Overnight lows will dip into the low 50s for the plains with mid to upper 40s along the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce rainfall of a 0.10 to 0.50” total in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong showers have the potential to produce rainfall of 0.50 to 1.00” total in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong stationery, or training of thunderstorms has the potential to produce 1.00” to 2.00” in under 60 minutes.

County Message Valid Times Prime Time
Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM
Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM
Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM
Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM
Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM
Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM
DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM
Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM
the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM
Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM
Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM
Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM

County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook
Precipitation Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams Current TO 900 PM THU
0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%) ISSUED
Arapahoe Current TO 900 PM THU
0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%) ISSUED
Boulder Current TO 900 PM THU
0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%) ISSUED
Broomfield Current TO 900 PM THU
0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%) ISSUED
Denver Current TO 900 PM THU
0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%) ISSUED
Douglas Current TO 900 PM THU
0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%) ISSUED
Jefferson Current TO 900 PM THU
0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%) ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft      
Boulder Current TO 900 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%) ISSUED
Douglas Current TO 900 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%) ISSUED
Jefferson Current TO 900 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%) ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
https://f2p2.udfcd.org/generator/