Flash Flood Prediction Program

-	Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 11:59pm this evening. A slight chance rain showers/isolated thunderstorms persist past midnight tonight resulting in an extension of Message 1's.
-	Very similar conditions in place as yesterday with dew points currently in the mid 50's to low 60's. A convergence line just SE of the District has already starting initiating rapid storm development and is expected to continue to pulse up through the afternoon. Additional storms are starting to develop west of the District and are expected to start moving through over the couple of hours. Multiple rounds of storms will be possible today with the best chance for heavy rain between 3pm and 11pm at this time.
-	Storm motions will generally be from the W/NW to E/SE between 5-10mph, with some erratic storm movement likely off outflow boundaries as storms strengthen through the evening. After 11pm the stronger storms are expected to have moved well east of the District, however a slight chance will remain for a late evening/overnight round of rain showers/isolated thunderstorms with localized heavy rainfall possible through the early morning hours Thursday.

STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a 0.10-0.5" of rainfall. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.5" in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving thunderstorm anchored off an outflow boundary has the potential to produce up to 2.6" of heavy rainfall in 45-75 minutes.

County	Message	Valid Times	Prime Time
Broomfield County	1	200 PM TO 1159 PM	300 PM TO 1100 PM
Jefferson County	1	200 PM TO 1159 PM	300 PM TO 1100 PM
Boulder County	1	200 PM TO 1159 PM	300 PM TO 1100 PM
Arvada	1	200 PM TO 1159 PM	300 PM TO 1100 PM
Wheat Ridge	1	200 PM TO 1159 PM	300 PM TO 1100 PM
the City of Aurora	1	200 PM TO 1159 PM	300 PM TO 1100 PM
Arapahoe County	1	200 PM TO 1159 PM	300 PM TO 1100 PM
DIA	1	200 PM TO 1159 PM	300 PM TO 1100 PM
Denver County	1	200 PM TO 1159 PM	300 PM TO 1100 PM
Adams County	1	200 PM TO 1159 PM	300 PM TO 1100 PM
Douglas County	1	200 PM TO 1159 PM	300 PM TO 1100 PM
Lakewood	1	200 PM TO 1159 PM	300 PM TO 1100 PM

County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook	Precipitation Time	30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability	Message Potential
Plains
Adams	200 PM TO 1159 PM	0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%)	ISSUED
Arapahoe	200 PM TO 1159 PM	0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%)	ISSUED
Boulder	200 PM TO 1159 PM	0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%)	ISSUED
Broomfield	200 PM TO 1159 PM	0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%)	ISSUED
Denver	200 PM TO 1159 PM	0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%)	ISSUED
Douglas	200 PM TO 1159 PM	0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%)	ISSUED
Jefferson	200 PM TO 1159 PM	0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%)	ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder	200 PM TO 1159 PM	0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)	ISSUED
Douglas	200 PM TO 1159 PM	0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)	ISSUED
Jefferson	200 PM TO 1159 PM	0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)	ISSUED

MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.