Flash Flood Prediction Program

-	Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 8:00 PM this evening.
-	An upper-level disturbance, rich with moisture from the remnants of tropical cyclone Kay, is propagating across the state this afternoon creating a favorable environment for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the District into the evening. Typical storms will produce brief moderate rainfall but stronger storms or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce small areas of heavy rainfall, hail, and gusty winds.
-	Prime time for thunderstorm activity will be starting over the next hour and continue through about 7:30 PM. Favored areas for stronger storms appears to be E of I-25 and S of I-70. Thunderstorms are expected to have pushed east of the District by 8:00 PM or shortly after.

STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.4" of rain. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.4-1.0" in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving strong thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce up to 1.6" of rain in 45-60 minutes.

County	Message	Valid Times	Prime Time
Boulder County	1	200 PM TO 800 PM	230 PM TO 730 PM
Jefferson County	1	200 PM TO 800 PM	230 PM TO 730 PM
Broomfield County	1	200 PM TO 800 PM	230 PM TO 730 PM
Douglas County	1	200 PM TO 800 PM	230 PM TO 730 PM
Adams County	1	200 PM TO 800 PM	230 PM TO 730 PM
Denver County	1	200 PM TO 800 PM	230 PM TO 730 PM
DIA	1	200 PM TO 800 PM	230 PM TO 730 PM
Arapahoe County	1	200 PM TO 800 PM	230 PM TO 730 PM
the City of Aurora	1	200 PM TO 800 PM	230 PM TO 730 PM
Arvada	1	200 PM TO 800 PM	230 PM TO 730 PM
Wheat Ridge	1	200 PM TO 800 PM	230 PM TO 730 PM
Lakewood	1	200 PM TO 800 PM	230 PM TO 730 PM

County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook	Precipitation Time	30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability	Message Potential
Plains
Adams	Current TO 800 PM THU	0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.0" (10%)	ISSUED
Arapahoe	Current TO 800 PM THU	0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (20%)	ISSUED
Boulder	Current TO 800 PM THU	0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.0" (10%)	ISSUED
Broomfield	Current TO 800 PM THU	0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.0" (10%)	ISSUED
Denver	Current TO 800 PM THU	0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%)	ISSUED
Douglas	Current TO 800 PM THU	0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (20%)	ISSUED
Jefferson	Current TO 800 PM THU	0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%)	ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder	Current TO 800 PM THU	0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%)	ISSUED
Douglas	Current TO 800 PM THU	0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (20%)	ISSUED
Jefferson	Current TO 800 PM THU	0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (20%)	ISSUED

MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.