Time: 458 PM Sat July 15, 2023 Forecaster: Brad Simmons

Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program

MESSAGE 1'S HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT
Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 9;00 PM this evening.

A strong thunderstorm has entered Boulder County and will trek to the S/SE at 20-25mph and will encounter a surface wind convergence boundary that has set up over central portions of the Denver Metro area. This storm alone is capable of producing heavy rainfall but may result in additional thunderstorm activity and/or slower motions as it interacts with the wind convergence line over central areas of the District.

A briefly anchored strong thunderstorm will produce the greatest threat for extended periods of heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff. Typical thunderstorms will produce brief heavy rainfall, gusty winds and hail. Best chances for thunderstorm activity will be until 9:00 PM this evening.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Moderate to strong thunderstorms have the potential to produce heavy rainfall rates of 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving strong thunderstorm will have the potential to produce up to 1.5" in 45-60 minutes

County Message Valid Times Prime Time
Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM
Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM 530 PM TO 830 PM
Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM 530 PM TO 830 PM
Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM 530 PM TO 830 PM
Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM 530 PM TO 830 PM
Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM 530 PM TO 830 PM
DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM 530 PM TO 830 PM
Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM 530 PM TO 830 PM
the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM 530 PM TO 830 PM
Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM 530 PM TO 830 PM
Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM 530 PM TO 830 PM
Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM 530 PM TO 830 PM

County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook
Precipitation Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams Current TO 900 PM SAT
0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED
Arapahoe Current TO 900 PM SAT
0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED
Boulder Current TO 900 PM SAT
0.1" (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED
Broomfield Current TO 900 PM SAT
0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED
Denver Current TO 900 PM SAT
0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED
Douglas Current TO 900 PM SAT
0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED
Jefferson Current TO 900 PM SAT
0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft      
Boulder Current TO 900 PM SAT
0.1" (70%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED
Douglas Current TO 900 PM SAT
0.1" (70%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED
Jefferson Current TO 900 PM SAT
0.1" (70%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
https://f2p2.udfcd.org/generator/