Flash Flood Prediction Program

-	Message 1's have been issued for Adams, Arapahoe, Denver, Douglas and Jefferson Counties and will be valid until 8:30 PM.
-	A surface wind convergence line is currently draped across portions of Adams, Arapahoe and Douglas Counties. This is an area that may initiate thunderstorms later this afternoon. Should storms develop they will be stationary or move very little and stronger storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall that could lead to excessive runoff. Should the risk increase for heavy rainfall over Boulder and Broomfield Counties, Message 1's may be issued later this afternoon.
-	Best chances for storms overall looks to be E of I-25 and S of I-70 with prime time between 2:00 PM and 7:30 PM.

STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall rates of 0.3-0.9" in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: A nearly stationary strong thunderstorm will have the potential to produce up to 1.6" of rain in 45-60 minutes.

County	Message	Valid Times	Prime Time
Lakewood	1	100 PM TO 830 PM	200 PM TO 730 PM
Arvada	1	100 PM TO 830 PM	200 PM TO 730 PM
Wheat Ridge	1	100 PM TO 830 PM	200 PM TO 730 PM
the City of Aurora	1	100 PM TO 830 PM	200 PM TO 730 PM
Arapahoe County	1	100 PM TO 830 PM	200 PM TO 730 PM
DIA	1	100 PM TO 830 PM	200 PM TO 730 PM
Denver County	1	100 PM TO 830 PM	200 PM TO 730 PM
Douglas County	1	100 PM TO 830 PM	200 PM TO 730 PM
Adams County	1	100 PM TO 830 PM	200 PM TO 730 PM
Jefferson County	1	100 PM TO 830 PM	200 PM TO 730 PM

County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook	Precipitation Time	30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability	Message Potential
Plains
Adams	100 PM TO 830 PM	0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (15%)	ISSUED
Arapahoe	100 PM TO 830 PM	0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.9" (20%)	ISSUED
Boulder	100 PM TO 830 PM	0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.9" (10%)	LOW
Broomfield	100 PM TO 830 PM	0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.9" (10%)	LOW
Denver	100 PM TO 830 PM	0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.9" (20%)	ISSUED
Douglas	100 PM TO 830 PM	0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (30%)	ISSUED
Jefferson	100 PM TO 830 PM	0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.9" (20%)	ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder	100 PM TO 830 PM	0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (10%)	LOW
Douglas	100 PM TO 830 PM	0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (30%)	ISSUED
Jefferson	100 PM TO 830 PM	0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.9" (20%)	ISSUED

MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.