Time: 915 AM Wed September 11, 2019 Forecaster: Nick Barlow

Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program

SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS
-Brisk SW flow aloft continues over Colorado Wednesday, as a strong trough of low pressure tracks into the Northern Rockies. Daytime temperatures will be slightly cooler today, with highs in the low to mid 80s under partly-cloudy skies.
-Lift from the approaching trough will help trigger a round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Similar to Tuesday, the majority of showers and storms should stay just N of the District.
-The threat for heavy rainfall is low, but an isolated stronger thunderstorm could produce moderate to briefly-heavy rainfall. Today's storms will track briskly to the NE at around 20-25mph, with the best chance for a storm over the District occurring between about 3:00pm-8:00pm.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate showers and thunderstorms will produce rainfall amounts between 0.05-0.20" in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms could produce rainfall between 0.20-0.50" in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of strong storm cells over the same area results in rainfall up to 1.20" in 45-75 minutes.

A LOOK AHEAD: A cool and dry airmass arrives Thursday behind a cold front, with highs only in the mid to upper 70s and plenty of sunshine. Precipitation is not expected.

Location Prime Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams 300 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (70%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW
Arapahoe 300 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (65%) to 0.2" (35%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW
Boulder 300 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.2" (55%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW
Broomfield 300 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.2" (55%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW
Denver 300 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (65%) to 0.2" (35%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW
Douglas 300 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE
Jefferson 300 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (55%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW
Foothills above 6500ft      
Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.2" (55%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW
Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (35%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE
Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.