Flash Flood Prediction Program

-	Message 1's for Adams, Arapahoe, Denver and Douglas Counties will be allowed to expire at 9:00 PM as the threat for heavy rainfall has decreased but rain showers and fast moving weak to moderate thunderstorms will continue overnight.
-	Fast moving rain showers and weak to briefly moderate thunderstorms will continue likely through the overnight period with some snow for the higher foothills above 9k as a strong late season trough of low pressure continues to move through the District.
-	The fast storm motions from SW to NE at 30-40mph will greatly reduce point rainfall amounts but training of thunderstorms may still result in the potential for heavy rainfall which will be monitored through the later evening and overnight period. Message 1's may need to be re-issued overnight if a worst case scenario plays out.

STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" in 10-30 minutes. Training of moderate thunderstorms may produce 0.2-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. Hourly rainfall rates expected to be highly variable with anywhere from 0.1-0.6" possible.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of moderate to strong thunderstorm cells may result in heavy rainfall of up to 1.2" in 45-90 minutes.

County	Message	Valid Times	Prime Time
Douglas County	1	Current TO 900 PM	Current TO 900 PM
Adams County	1	Current TO 900 PM	Current TO 900 PM
Denver County	1	Current TO 900 PM	Current TO 900 PM
DIA	1	Current TO 900 PM	Current TO 900 PM
Arapahoe County	1	Current TO 900 PM	Current TO 900 PM
the City of Aurora	1	Current TO 900 PM	Current TO 900 PM

County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook	Precipitation Time	30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability	Message Potential
Plains
Adams	Current TO 1000 AM SAT	Trace (100%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (10%)	LOW
Arapahoe	Current TO 1000 AM SAT	Trace (100%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (10%)	LOW
Boulder	Current TO 1000 AM SAT	Trace (100%) to 0.2" (70%) to 0.6" (15%)	LOW
Broomfield	Current TO 1000 AM SAT	Trace (100%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (10%)	LOW
Denver	Current TO 1000 AM SAT	Trace (100%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (10%)	LOW
Douglas	Current TO 1000 AM SAT	Trace (100%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (10%)	LOW
Jefferson	Current TO 1000 AM SAT	Trace (100%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (10%)	LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder	Current TO 1000 AM SAT	Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.6" (20%)	LOW
Douglas	Current TO 1000 AM SAT	Trace (100%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (10%)	LOW
Jefferson	Current TO 1000 AM SAT	Trace (100%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (10%)	LOW

MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.