| Message 2’s, Flood Watch, have been issued for central/eastern/southern portions of the District and areas along the foothills effective from 2pm until 9pm this evening. Message 1’s have been issued for the Boulder suburbs, western Broomfield and the Jefferson suburbs effective from 2pm until 9pm this evening. The monsoonal moisture transport setup has strengthened over Colorado and the District today. This has brought the potential for some of the heaviest thunderstorm-driven rainfall of the year this afternoon and into the evening. Dewpoints across the District have dropped only a few degrees this morning, still well into the upper 50s, and will only mix down to the low/mid 50s by the time daytime heating initiates convection over the high country west of the District. As storms make their way east into the foothills and plains by midafternoon, the District will have 1.00"- 1.15" of precipitable water (PWAT) available. Combined with slower storm motions than the past few days, with some stationary storms likely, will lead to an increased chance for localized flooding today. Hail and gusty outflow winds that reach severe thresholds will also be possible with stronger storms, with some potential for severe weather, mainly areas east of I-25. Outflow boundary-driven storm initiation will be possible after the first round of storms today, with potential for lingering thunderstorms around the District remaining through the evening and into the night. |
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow-moving strong thunderstorm or a large thunderstorm complex may result in up to 3.0” of rain in 60-90 minutes.
| County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook |
Precipitation Time | 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability |
Message Potential |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plains | |||
| Adams |
200 PM TO
900 PM |
0.03" (80%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.5" (30%) | |
| Arapahoe |
200 PM TO
900 PM |
0.03" (80%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.5" (30%) | |
| Boulder |
200 PM TO
900 PM |
0.03" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) to 1.5" (15%) | |
| Broomfield |
200 PM TO
900 PM |
0.03" (80%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.5" (30%) | |
| Denver |
200 PM TO
900 PM |
0.03" (80%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.5" (30%) | |
| Douglas |
200 PM TO
900 PM |
0.03" (80%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.5" (30%) | |
| Jefferson |
200 PM TO
900 PM |
0.03" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) to 1.5" (15%) | |
| Foothills above 6500ft | |||
| Boulder |
200 PM TO
900 PM |
0.03" (80%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.5" (30%) | |
| Douglas |
200 PM TO
900 PM |
0.03" (80%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.5" (30%) | |
| Jefferson |
200 PM TO
900 PM |
0.03" (80%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.5" (30%) |
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.