Time: 854 AM Thu July 30, 2020 Forecaster: Justin Brooks

Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program

COOLER TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
-A cold front will move in from the NE around midday resulting in cooler high temperatures in the low 80's across the plains with mid 70's along the foothills. Elevated surface moisture this morning as dew points are in the low to mid 50's and will generally hold this afternoon in the low 50's. Combined with strong NW upper-level flow aloft, will bring an increased chance for isolated heavy rainfall this afternoon.
-Initial storm development will occur over the higher terrain between 1-2pm with rain showers/thunderstorms pushing out onto the plains between 2-3pm. The best chance for storms today will be from 2-7pm with lingering weak showers/isoalted thunderstorms through sunset. Storm motion today will be from the N/NW to S/SE between 10-15mph, which could help limit point rainfall amounts, although training of thunderstorm cells will be possible along with the potential for slower moving storms that have formed from an outflow boundary.
-Skies will begin to clear around sunset as overnight temperatures drop into the upper 50's to low 60's across the District. Similar high temperatures tomorrow with a slight decrease in storm activity, although an isolated moderate to strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out completely at this time.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce TR-0.3" of rain. Strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. Supplemental QPF is available at https://qpf.udfcd.org

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of thunderstorms cells or slower moving/stationary strong thunderstorm may produce up to 2.25" of rain in 45-60 minutes.

A LOOK AHEAD: High temperatures will remain slightly cooler than average, in the 80's, over the next few days. Afternoon and early evening storm chances will continue through the weekend, with the best chance on Sunday at this time.

Location Prime Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 1.0" (10%) LOW
Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 1.0" (10%) LOW
Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD
Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD
Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 1.0" (10%) LOW
Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 1.0" (10%) LOW
Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD
Foothills above 6500ft      
Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD
Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 1.0" (10%) LOW
Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.