Time: 950 AM Mon July 8, 2019 Forecaster: Justin Brooks

Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program

WARM TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
-Southwest flow aloft will still dominate across the region today along with warm southerly surface winds will result in temperatures to reach the mid to upper 80's across the District.
-Lingering low-level moisture remains for showers/thunderstorms to develop across the District this afternoon. Storms will initially develop over the foothills by midday, before spreading onto the plains during afternoon, with a chance for a couple of rounds into the early evening. Storm activity should quickly taper off this evening with the loss of daytime heating.
-Moisture will be plentiful once again today with dew points projected in the upper 40's to low 50's this afternoon. Storm movement will be from W/SW to E/NE with typical storm motions at 10-15mph, but some storms could stall over an area for a short period of time due to outflow boundary development. If a stronger thunderstorm manages to develop, then the potential will exist for localized moderate to heavy rainfall.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce rainfall amounts of 0.1-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. A strong thunderstorm will be capable of producing heavy rainfall of 0.4-0.7" in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm stalls over an area, resulting in heavy rainfall of up to 1.4" in 45-75 minutes.

A LOOK AHEAD: High-pressure begins to build over the region Tuesday leading to drier conditions, although there will be a slight chance for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each day through the rest of this week. Surface moisture should decrease as high-pressure builds resulting in a less chance for heavy rainfall for the remainder of this week, however, only a slight uptick in available surface moisture could result in moderate to heavy rainfall chances.

Location Prime Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams 100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.4" (30%) to 0.7" (10%) LOW
Arapahoe 100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.7" (20%) MOD
Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.4" (30%) to 0.7" (10%) LOW
Broomfield 100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.4" (30%) to 0.7" (10%) LOW
Denver 100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.7" (20%) MOD
Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.7" (20%) MOD
Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.7" (20%) MOD
Foothills above 6500ft      
Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.4" (30%) to 0.7" (10%) LOW
Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.7" (10%) LOW
Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.7" (10%) LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.