Flash Flood Prediction Program

Message 1’s will expire at 6pm as the threat of heavy rainfall has come to an end.

Showers and thunderstorms have moved south and eastward and out of the District at this time. Sunny to partly sunny skies currently with temperatures in the low to mid 60’s.

A few showers/isolated thunderstorms persist to the north and northwest and could impact the District later this evening. The best chance for additional storm development between 7-9pm with a few lighter showers possibly lingering though 10pm.

Upper-level winds will shift westerly to northwesterly through the rest of the evening which should keep down sloping winds, keeping a minimal chance for additional shower activity. Low to mid 50’s dew points at the surface will likely keep at least a LOW threat for Message 1’s to be reissued this evening, however the threat for that should be minimal at this time.

STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce trace-0.20” total, in 10-30 minutes. A moderate thunderstorm could produce 0.20-0.60” total, in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce up to 1.2” in 45-60 minutes.

County	Message	Valid Times	Prime Time
the City of Aurora	1	Current TO 600 PM	Current TO 600 PM
Arapahoe County	1	Current TO 600 PM	Current TO 600 PM
DIA	1	Current TO 600 PM	Current TO 600 PM
Denver County	1	Current TO 600 PM	Current TO 600 PM
Adams County	1	Current TO 600 PM	Current TO 600 PM
Douglas County	1	Current TO 600 PM	Current TO 600 PM
Broomfield County	1	Current TO 600 PM	Current TO 600 PM
Jefferson County	1	Current TO 600 PM	Current TO 600 PM
Boulder County	1	Current TO 600 PM	Current TO 600 PM
Arvada	1	Current TO 600 PM	Current TO 600 PM
Wheat Ridge	1	Current TO 600 PM	Current TO 600 PM
Lakewood	1	Current TO 600 PM	Current TO 600 PM

County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook	Precipitation Time	30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability	Message Potential
Plains
Adams	Current TO 1000 PM FRI	Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%)	LOW
Arapahoe	Current TO 1000 PM FRI	Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%)	LOW
Boulder	Current TO 1000 PM FRI	Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%)	LOW
Broomfield	Current TO 1000 PM FRI	Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%)	LOW
Denver	Current TO 1000 PM FRI	Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%)	LOW
Douglas	Current TO 1000 PM FRI	Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%)	LOW
Jefferson	Current TO 1000 PM FRI	Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%)	LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder	Current TO 1000 PM FRI	Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.6" (15%)	LOW
Douglas	Current TO 1000 PM FRI	Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.6" (15%)	LOW
Jefferson	Current TO 1000 PM FRI	Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.6" (15%)	LOW

MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.