Time: 1017 AM Tue May 14, 2019 Forecaster: Nick Barlow

Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program

WARMER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
-Upper-level high pressure remains the dominant feature across the West Tuesday, with NW flow aloft over Colorado. Afternoon temperatures will climb further above average today, topping out in the low 80s over the plains.
-Enough moisture remains underneath the ridge to help produce isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Today's storms will be high-based and generally weak, producing little rainfall over the District. Gusty outflow winds and lightning are the greatest hazards from these storms.
-Convection will be most numerous over the foothills, Cheyenne Ridge, and Palmer Divide, where greater instability exists. Today's storms will track to the SE at around 15-20mph, with the best chance for a storm over the District occurring between about 3pm-8pm.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Showers and thunderstorms will produce rainfall amounts of Trace-0.20" in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: An isolated stronger thunderstorm or training of storm cells over the same area results in rainfall of 0.20-0.50" in 60-90 minutes.

A LOOK AHEAD: High pressure moves overhead Wednesday, pushing temperatures into the low to mid 80s. Residual moisture will maintain a slight chance for isolated, high-based storms once again, most numerous over the higher terrain.

Location Prime Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams 300 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE
Arapahoe 300 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE
Boulder 300 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE
Broomfield 300 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE
Denver 300 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE
Douglas 300 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE
Jefferson 300 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE
Foothills above 6500ft      
Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (20%) NONE
Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (20%) NONE
Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (20%) NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.