Time: 955 AM Sat June 29, 2019 Forecaster: Justin Brooks

Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program

WARM TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
-Warm temperatures continue today before high-pressure starts to break down as a small disturbance moves over the region resulting in a chance for showers/isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Mostly sunny skies today will bring temperatures into the low 90's over the plains, with low to mid 80's for the foothills
-Relatively wide temperature/dew point spreads this afternoon suggests high based storms, resulting in gusty winds and light showers off the foothills with storm intensities increasing east of I-25 where slightly better surface moisture will be present allowing for a better chance of moderate showers favoring the eastern portion of the District with the threat for heavy rain remaining low
-Today's showers and thunderstorms will track from W/SW to E/NE at around 10-15mph, with the best chance for a storm over the District occurring between 1pm-8pm.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and thunderstorms will produce rainfall amounts between Trace-0.10" in 10-30 minutes. A slower moving, or moderate storm will produce 0.10-0.30" in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Surface moisture remains higher than expected, allowing a strong thunderstorm to produce rainfall up to 0.60" in 10-30 minutes.

A LOOK AHEAD: As high-pressure starts to break down, upper level flow becomes more favorable over the District Sunday and Monday resulting in a good chance of showers and thunderstorms as moisture also increases over the region. Sunday will have a slight chance of storms becoming severe, favoring northeastern Colorado, although a strong to severe storm in the District can't be ruled out at this time.

Location Prime Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams 100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW
Arapahoe 100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW
Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW
Broomfield 100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW
Denver 100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW
Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW
Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW
Foothills above 6500ft      
Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW
Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW
Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.