Time: 1019 AM Wed September 4, 2019 Forecaster: Alan Smith

Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program

WARMER WITH WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
-High pressure will strengthen over Colorado today with hot temperatures returning to the District. Partly cloudy skies currently will give way to better clearing by early afternoon with highs reaching the low 90s over the plains.
-Subtropical moisture rotating around the center of high pressure is moving into the District today. The increase in moisture along with daytime heating will result in 1-2 rounds of widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Storms will initially develop over the foothills around midday, before reaching the lower elevations by early/mid afternoon. Storm activity should quickly taper off after sunset this evening with the loss of daytime heating.
-Storms today are expected to be on the weaker side with most storms producing light to moderate rainfall amounts. However, if a stronger storm manages to develop, then the potential will exist for brief heavy rainfall. Dewpoints today are generally expected to be in the low to mid 40s with storm motions to the E/SE at 10-15mph.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical weak thunderstorms will produce rainfall amounts of TR-0.25" in 10-30 minutes, with up to 0.6" possible in 10-30 minutes under stronger thunderstorms.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of thunderstorm cells results in rainfall of up to 1.0" in 60 minutes or less.

A LOOK AHEAD: Another hot day is expected on Thursday with a chance of isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms, though coverage looks more spotty today with storms producing only light rainfall. A rather active pattern for this time of year is then expected from Friday through Sunday as a series of upper level troughs containing subtropical moisture move across the Rockies. Cooler temperatures along with a good chance of thunderstorms can be expected each day Friday-Sunday with heavy rainfall possible.

Location Prime Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW
Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW
Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW
Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW
Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW
Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW
Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW
Foothills above 6500ft      
Boulder 1230 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.3" (45%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW
Douglas 1230 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW
Jefferson 1230 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.