Warm downsloping winds throughout the day today will hinder significant thunderstorm development. Air descending the mountains will reach the low 90s as it arrives across the District, accompanied by wind gusts of 20-25mph. A shortwave disturbance currently over southwestern Montana will traverse Wyoming as the morning goes on before arriving in Colorado and sparking a round of isolated, gusty, mostly dry thunderstorms later this afternoon. Dewpoints will be in the upper 20s to low 30s with precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.55”. These parameters will support isolated dry thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, largely capable of producing virga and perhaps a few sprinkles.

STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Thunderstorms today have the potential to produce up to 0.10” in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm may be capable of producing 0.20” or more in 30 minutes or less.

A LOOK AHEAD: A strong cold front approaching from the north will arrive in between midnight tonight and sunrise Sunday, bringing with it a chance of scattered, light morning showers that favor the northeastern plains of Colorado. Behind this cold front, afternoon highs 15-20°F cooler than today will arrive. Post-frontal upslope flow throughout the morning will drive development of widespread thunderstorms that initiate around lunchtime and linger into the late evening. Warmer temperatures return Monday, as well as a round of afternoon thunderstorms that, as of now, more heavily favors regions along and south of the Palmer Divide, with Denver impacts appearing minimal. Tuesday warms even further, with a disturbance expected to initiate a round of thunderstorms drier and gustier than those of Sunday and Monday. The warming trend continues as the week goes on, with a heat wave expected to develop as the end of the work week approaches.