Time: 723 PM Fri July 21, 2023 Forecaster: Brad Simmons

Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program

MESSGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT
Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 10:30 PM.

An upper level disturbance is moving in from the N/NW and will result in a round of thunderstorms for at least northern and central areas of the District this evening. This line of storms may not sustain themselves long enough to impact southern areas of the District and there is a lower risk for heavy rainfall over Arapahoe and Douglas Counties.

Storm motions will be from the NW to SE between 20-25mph which will help limit point rainfall amounts. However, training of thunderstorms are possible and may result in an extended period of moderate to heavy rain. Stronger storms may also contain hail and gusty winds.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers or a weak thunderstorm will produce a TR-0.3” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong thunderstorm will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of thunderstorm cells may produce up to 1.2" of rain in 45-60 minutes.

County Message Valid Times Prime Time
Lakewood 1 Current TO 1030 PM Current TO 1000 PM
Douglas County 1 Current TO 1030 PM Current TO 1000 PM
Adams County 1 Current TO 1030 PM Current TO 1000 PM
Denver County 1 Current TO 1030 PM Current TO 1000 PM
DIA 1 Current TO 1030 PM Current TO 1000 PM
Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1030 PM Current TO 1000 PM
the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1030 PM Current TO 1000 PM
Arvada 1 Current TO 1030 PM Current TO 1000 PM
Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1030 PM Current TO 1000 PM
Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1030 PM Current TO 1000 PM
Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1030 PM Current TO 1000 PM
Boulder County 1 Current TO 1030 PM Current TO 1000 PM

County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook
Precipitation Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams Current TO 1030 PM FRI
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED
Arapahoe Current TO 1030 PM FRI
0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED
Boulder Current TO 1030 PM FRI
0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED
Broomfield Current TO 1030 PM FRI
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED
Denver Current TO 1030 PM FRI
0.1" (85%) to 0.4" (45%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED
Douglas Current TO 1030 PM FRI
0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED
Jefferson Current TO 1030 PM FRI
0.1" (85%) to 0.4" (45%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft      
Boulder Current TO 1030 PM FRI
0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED
Douglas Current TO 1030 PM FRI
0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED
Jefferson Current TO 1030 PM FRI
0.1" (85%) to 0.4" (45%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
https://f2p2.udfcd.org/generator/