Time: 846 AM Sat May 20, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks

Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program

CLOUDY/HAZY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONE AGAIN LIMITED TO THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE
Not much overall change in the weather pattern as cloudy and hazy conditions remain in place this morning. Skies are expected to gradually clear through the afternoon with a good chance for afternoon and evening rain showers/isolated thunderstorms along the higher terrain and into the foothills. There will be a slight chance a few of these storms will move onto the plains and into the District this afternoon and into the evening.

The best chance for storms in the District will be from 3pm through 9pm, with a few lingering rain showers possible through 10pm before skies clear into the overnight. Typical rain showers will only produce a TR-0.2”, however, a slower moving thunderstorm could have the potential to produce isolated higher amounts due to weak steering winds aloft. Due to these weak steering winds, a low chance will remain in place for isolated heavy rainfall this afternoon and evening, favoring areas along the foothills and southeastern portions of the District at this time.

Skies gradually clear through the overnight and into daybreak Sunday. Mild and dry conditions are expected after 10pm and into Sunday as overnight lows drop to around 50 degrees for the plains with mid to upper 40’s along the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will produce rainfall amounts of TR-0.2” in 10-30 minutes. A weak thunderstorm will produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.5” in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong, slow moving or nearly stationary thunderstorm has the potential to produce heavy rainfall of up to 1.0” in 45-60 minutes.

A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions remain in place Sunday, however, drier air aloft should limit the chance for any heavy rainfall. Not much change Monday, with another chance for afternoon/eve rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. A better chance for impactful rain showers/thunderstorms Tuesday with a slight chance of severe weather in the afternoon and evening including large hail, gusty winds and heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding.

Location Prime Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams 300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW
Arapahoe 300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW
Boulder 300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW
Broomfield 300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW
Denver 300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW
Douglas 300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW
Jefferson 300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW
Foothills above 6500ft      
Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW
Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW
Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
https://f2p2.udfcd.org/generator/